Coat Tails

I am liking Obama more the more I get to know him. But I would be lying to you if I did not admit to ulterior motives.

My primary one is seeing as many Democrats get elected as is humanly possible. Obama seems a far more appealing and less divisive figure than Clinton. Lots of Republicans have come to me to confess that they voted for him and intend to in the general election if he is the nominee. Most seem to both like him and dislike Clinton. The range of reasons WHY they dislike Clinton is dizzying. I will not dwell on them, but suffice it to say, she arouses powerful negative emotions in a surprisingly large section of the electorate. Some may vote for McCain in protest, some may just sit out the election, but it will be less favorable to us than running a candidate that people seem inclined to go out and vote for, to cross party lines to vote for, and to send lots of money to. Last night the list of individual donors to the Obama campaign crossed the One Million mark. The average of those donations has been $109. If one could tally up all the volunteers in the various primary states, the precinct captains, sometimes five or more in a precinct, the numbers compared to the other campaigns would be staggering. That's why Obama is going to win Texas and why he may also win Ohio.

But all of that just tells me something else. When Obama has been drawing more voters out of the woodwork to vote for him than vote in that same primary for ALL the Republican candidates combined, that looks extremely promising. When turnout exceeds any prior primary election in all of the states so far, something is going on. Yes, it is Clinton as well, but Obama seems to be drawing in apathetic and new voters, including independents and cross-over voters. What that means, I believe, is that in a general election many of those same primary voters, if not all of them, will find themselves in a voting booth with Obama on the ballot and a list of Democratic Party candidates further down the list. And a good percentage of those voters are likely to go ahead and vote for the Congressman or Senator in the same party as their candidate, in this case Obama. That's called coat tails. My sense is that if the election keeps powering along the way it has, those coat tails may be extremely long, long enough to permit a host of Democratic candidates to ride along on them in 2008. In this election cycle ALL of the Representatives are up for re-election. Democrats and Republicans alike. We enjoy a slight edge in Congress, my hunch is that will increase a good bit. In the Senate a third of the Senators are up for election in 2008, but more Republicans than Democrats, which means that we have more opportunity for pick-ups this year. If our candidate energizes the voters into coming out to vote. Obama seems to do a good job of that. I am not the only one to have this idea.

Arthur