A 60 Point Spread

Obama is up to a more comfortable 60 electoral vote advantage over Romney (O 299 - R 239) and there looks to be a 90% probability of Democrats holding control of the Senate. I think those margins may inch up somewhat more, with Obama taking 310 to 330 electoral votes, a respectable margin over the 270 needed to win the election.

Today the world's oddest couple, Obama and Governor Chris Christie, are going to be the news as they tour New Jersey's hurricane damage. Romney has very pointedly not been invited to come to New Jersey and say stupid things, which means he will be struggling to appear relevant and coherent, while saying "Gosh" and "Golly" a bit too many times to be believable. About the only thing Romney could do to breath some life into his flagging campaign would be to tell someone to get fucked, but that's not likely. "Sandy" seems to have helped the public focus on reality vs. posturing. I continue to believe that the election is essentially over, with either a flatline or a steady GOP slide in the final week. Any last-minute Omigod! moments have been outgunned by the tangible reality that the climate and the oceans really do matter, and FEMA is a pretty decent way of sharing the risks among all fifty states.

I find it telling that Romney is collecting plastic bags full of canned goods, something he may have learned in his Boy Scout days. Or his kid's Scouting days. Our youngest is an Eagle Scout, so I spent a lot of time with Scouts and I respect the organization, but FEMA it ain't. Interestingly, many Mormon boys are encouraged to join the Boy Scouts, which made me wonder whether Romney was a Boy Scout? For a Boy Scout to gather together a gang in a Private School and hold down another student so Romney could give him a forced haircut would have been very much against the Scout Code. It turns out that Romney was not a Scout, nor an Eagle Scout, but three of his sons are Eagle Scouts and Romney has been on the Boy Scouts Board for ten years. It is not clear he learned anything, except to collect canned goods.

Romney seems increasingly desperate, showing easily debunked ads that claim that Chrysler is planning to ship all Jeep production to China, which the Italian head of Chrysler issued a scathing rebuttal of in a mass mailing and e-mailing to all of the Jeep workers in Ohio and Michigan. To the contrary, some Jeep plants are working double shifts, employment is up by thousands and sales have tripled. There are no plans to move that production offshore. That information, now being widely disseminated in Ohio, makes Romney seem like a pathological liar and desperate propagandist, which I would suggest that he is. Rather than taking the high road, my hunch is that Romney is going to try to double down on his Hitlerian/Joseph Goebbels "Big Lie" tactics in this last week, in hopes of brainwashing the "truly clueless" class of voters. Fortunately a lot of them are Union Members and the Unions think Romney is a dickhead. I think the net effect will be to energize his opponents, rather than convert them to his version of Scientology and Fantasy. Some Americans may be a bit slow to catch on, but they don't like being lied to.

When this election is over I predict that there are going to be a lot of confessions from pundits and reporters about what a jerk they always secretly thought Romney was. They've kept the false meme of "a close race" going as long as was needed to keep viewership up, but now I think the storm is a better story, so they don't need to spin the "Romney could win" fantasy any longer.

In the interests of full disclosure I should mention that I disliked George H. W. Bush so intensely that I felt certain that some Iran-Contra dirt would come out about him before the election and sink him like a rock. So I called up a bookmaker in London and put a $1,000 bet on him to lose. Not the best gamble I've ever made, so I vowed to make donations in the future, rather than try to be a predator, which I came to see as bad Karma. In this election I've given some modest support to Elizabeth Warren, one of the smarter and more principled candidates I've seen in years. The Republicans hate her because she is so damn smart and so principled, while having such a clear sense of what is needed to do to protect American consumers from Predatory Banking. We all should be taking our funds out of Major Banks and putting them in Credit Unions. I like the Oregon Community Credit Union myself; they provide fantastic service and operate on honest business practices. How old-fashioned of them!

And that's what I think is needed right now... a return to honest business practices and straight talk. Mitt Romney is pretty much the polar opposite of that, which I think many Americans are beginning to understand. Lastly, it has nothing to do with Romney being a Mormon, though I think many will be conscious of that. Senator Harry Reid is also a Mormon, which strongly suggests that there are good Mormons and wingnut Mormons. This election may have a catalytic effect on whether Mormons lean strongly conservative Republican in recent decades. I think when more is known about Romney's tax dodging, some of which appears related to his donations to the Mormon Church, they will be doing some soul-searching.

Arthur

Sports, Politics, and Weather

For those of us who live in the San Francisco area the SF Giants have given us a pretty fun ride this fall. One of the more memorable moments was when the Giants recovered from a 3-1 deficit, which is not easy to do, and won the next three games straight, one in Cincinnati and two at the AT&T Park here in the Bay Area. Great p.r. for the city, from Fox Sports blimp footage of the Bay near sunset.

 

So, that shows a lot of crazy confidence, to come back from the brink of oblivion to win the next three games and go on to the World Series, and then win that in a sweep, for the first time since something like 1992. Or one of those mindless statistics that Joe Buck kept blathering about.

But back to game Seven in the National League playoff. The Cincinnati Reds were understandably fairly bummed. Who wouldn't be? But the Giants were playing their tails off, doing strange things, looking odd and generally being what passes for "normal" among them. And then, an hour before the end of the game it began to rain really, really heavily up north here. About five or six miles from the Ballpark. And we could look out the window and see a massive black cloud, moving slowly, majestically south across the Bay. Pissing down rain. Apparently in a World Series they don't call games on account of rain. Instead they have a rain delay, of an hour or two, or a day, and then they go at it again. On television, and in the sky, we could see when the Black Cloud reached the Ballpark. It was... kind of like Judgment Day.

In the Park it began raining quite heavily. One of our players threw his head back, opened his mouth and began drinking the rain, as though it was the champagne he expected to be tasting soon. But for the Reds, it felt very much as though their parade was getting rained on. It was not fun. Great players, just not their destiny to win that critical game.

And while that was going on, everyone in San Francisco came to believe that SportsModel Joe Buck was a complete jerk. People made signs that read "Joe Buck Sucks" and waved them instead of their team colors. They decided that they hated Fox Sports and most of all they hated Joe Buck, who would NOT shut up. They also hated that when the Giants did something great, Buck always seemed to speak of them as having had a stroke of luck. What's with him?

Anyhow, where I am going with all of this is that Hurricane Sandy is a bit like that dark cloud we watched cross the Bay, moving inexorably down to drench the Reds chance to win the World Series. Just one of those things. So Mitt Romney? When he can stay on script, he was getting fairly good at sounding like he had half a brain. Not more than half, but okay, a half. But toss in some bad weather and what is he out doing? Collecting canned goods in Ohio. That the Red Cross says that they cannot accept, since they don't have time to sort through them in time to get them where they are needed. Please just send money, they told him. Did Mitt listen? Naah, he really is a moron. See, he thinks that he is anointed by Mormon theology to win this election because he is the "White Horse". I mean, he's definitely white, and Lord knows he's got lots of horses, see? It all makes sense.

But it doesn't. And now it has rained on his parade. Badly. So badly that Chris Christie just converted to Democratism in hopes of getting lots of Federal assistance. Why? Because if he doesn't he will end up in the crapper like Bobby Jindal, and he knows it.

Politics really does make strange bedfellows, doesn't it? Obama is about to prove to the nation that he can work perfectly well with Republicans, even morbidly obese trash-talking morons like Chris Christie. I mean really, can you imagine anyone who is more of a polar opposite than Obama?

Anyhow, so the Presidential election is over. Oh, you still need to go out and vote, there are a lot of candidates and other things that are still in play, but the Presidential election just got decided by Mother Nature.

She probably doesn't like Joe Buck, either.

 

 

Arthur

Beware "The Crazies"

(Halloween is upon us once again, and the crazies are coming out of the woodwork.  There's a particular eerie feeling in the air this year, what with the full moon, Halloween, and the presidential election all within two weeks of each other.  I use to enjoy Halloween.  I loved the little kids who came to the door in their costumes trying to muster up the courage to say "twickertweet" in hopes of getting some candy.  Now I'm glad I live in a very hilly neighborhood, with more up hills than down hills.  Keeps the little bastards from bothering me.  It's an age thing.  But I digress ...)

• Not sure how you feel about the final debate between Obama and Romney, but I'm sure you all have an opinion.  If "zingers" were the gauge of who won, this one went to Obama.  His comment to Romney about the military not needing bayonets and horses anymore was beautiful.  But as usual, the end of the debates signals the start of what I call "The Weirding."  For example:  General Colin Powell endorses Obama; Dick Cheney holds a fundraiser for Romney with Glenn Beck as special guest; former Republican official and current preacher tells his congregation "You can't be a Christian if you don't own a gun;" (The) Donald Trump offers to contribute 5 million dollars to Obama's charity of choice if he shows the world his college transcripts and passport information. What? 
• Bad Hat Comment of the Week:  In a Rolling Stone interview recently, President Obama finally told it like it is.   He called Mitt Romney a "bullshitter."  Could this be the beginning of a whole new trend in campaigning?
• Arthur writes: Omigod. Of all the earthly demonic forces I would HATE to have pursuing me across the surface of our home planet, Gloria Allred would be at the top of my list. Once she gets a taste of blood, she never stops.  The key points of the story would appear to be that the lady who got cheated in her divorce by Mitt Romney's dishonest testimony went on to having her wealthy husband take her child away from her, only to later reject and discard it, cut off her health insurance although she ALSO had MS (like Anne Romney, but minus the expensive therapeutic horse and two Cadillacs) and then she lost her house. Nice. A preview of what Romney might like to do for those slackers in the 47% of our nation. Screw them over bigtime:
  (Click Here)  And here's more on that story, "Court Releases Romney's Testimony."
• And what's a post about "crazies" without mentioning the queen of crazy, Ann Coulter?  Apparently after the third debate she referred to President Obama as "a retard."  Now, I've often wondered if Ann Coulter's act was just that, an act.  She not very bright.  She's more comedienne than pundit.  Even the right-wing don't take her seriously.  Yet she's still out there, vomiting all over herself.  She's like the passed out drunken co-ed in your roommate's bedroom who nobody wants to take home. 
• What's up with the Republican party and rape?  Several references to this heinous crime have been made by Republican officials lately, from "legitimate rape" to the latest from Richard Mourdock, Republican Senate candidate from Indiana, who has not retracted his debate remark that a pregnancy caused by rape "is something that God intended to happen."  Listen, wives of redneck American men:  Don't let your husband vote for you.  Tell him you'll do it yourself this year, because this time, you really care.

Weekend Update - "Bunch of Malarkey" Edition

(Been busy taking care of a good friend who just had back surgery.  Seems to me that older people - my age - can and probably will get all sorts of ailments, like arthritis and fallen arches and unexplained shortness of breath, and we generally work through them or take ibuprofen and brandy until it goes away.  But when your back goes, it's pretty much all over, life-style wise.  My friend Jodi is a singer and is my age and we've known each other for 30+ years, and we've made music together and had many wonderful adventures together - we "did" the 80's together, if you know what I mean - and I hate to see what this back thing is doing to her.  It's making her look her age.  Before the surgery she was in constant pain, some days better, most days worse, bent over and not in the best of moods.  Immediately after the surgery it was more pain, sometimes absolutely excruciating, only helped by drool inducing pain medication.  She seems to be getting better each day now, after the operation.  And that's a good goddamn thing, because I wonder if she can take much more.  I hate getting old.  I hate that my friend has to go through this.  In spite of the fact that I'm not in any way a religious person, I pray that this operation helps her stand up straight again, without pain.  As the old saying goes, life is, indeed, a bitch.  But I digress ...)

• Associated Press photographer Evan Vucci snapped the photo of Mitt Romney you see on the right, and it's kinda funny I suppose, as the little girl was really excited that Mitt was about to sit next to her for some reason or other, but Bill O'Reilly got all kerfluffed and pissed off and demanded that AP apologize immediately.  Did I mention that Bill O'Reilly is a idiot?
• Remember when Joe Biden got to debate the little empty-headed cheerleader from Alaska named Sarah Palin?  I'm sure he had fun.  Well, he had fun once again in his latest debate.  Paul Ryan's smiling, doe-eyed, zombie-faced look did nothing to hide his desperation as he attempted to lie his way through the facts of life once again.  If you watched the debate, you know, regardless of your political leanings.  If you missed it, here's a great report from Charles Pierce that pretty much sums it up.  (Also, see Arthur's post, below)
• Ever heard of the "Gish Gallop?"  Neither had I, but apparently it's a debate tactic created by creationist Duane Gish, that involves spewing so much bullshit in such a short span that your opponent can’t address it all, let alone counter all of it. "To make matters worse a Gish Gallop will often have one or more 'talking points' that has a tiny core of truth to it, making the person rebutting it spend even more time debunking it in order to explain that, yes, it's not totally false but the Galloper is distorting/misusing/misstating the actual situation."  Does anything about all this remind you of the Obama/Romney Debate the other night?  

Getting To Know You ...

I think I did get to know Paul Ryan a great deal better last evening in the debate. What I came away with is a sense that Ryan believed that if he looked straight into the camera and gave long speeches, while his soulful eyes were staring out at me, that I would swoon and believe every vague promise and dubious claim that he made.

Didn't work. Instead I found myself looking at what an odd double-bump nose he has, what odd Brilliantined hair, what a peculiar rabid puppy-dog look he has, and I found myself not wanting to be subjected to any more of his diatribes. Ever. He came across as a true believer, a sort of "Mini Mitt", a less practiced version of his running mate, but with more extreme theories about the economy and our society. I would not want such a person to be "one heartbeat away" from the Presidency.

So, not only do I think Biden won, on points, on personality and on the facts, the contrast between the two men has fired me up to work as hard as possible to make certain our country is not subjected to Ryan and Romney.

Oh, and their claims about Romney being so bipartisan when he was Governor of Massachusetts? Because he worked with an 87% Democratic Legislature? (their figures, not mine). Well gee, did he have any CHOICE about working with Democrats? Short of barricading himself in the Governor's Mansion and bellowing out the windows over a bullhorn, he either had to work with the Legislature or take a hike. Now if the Legislature was 49.5 - 50.5 and he worked well with Democrats, then they'd have a talking point. Do they imagine the American people are too stupid to understand the difference?

Guess again, quasi-pseudo-crypto-conservatives!

Arthur

"Newt" Romney 2.0

I kept wondering where I had seen this debate before. One of the debaters spouting an endless series of lies and misrepresentations, all in a condescending tone of voice. I thought of "Dick" Cheney debating Joe Lieberman, talking down to him in a condescending tone of voice while he spouted complete bullshit. But that was a different type of nonsense. But worth remembering.

But the flood of misinformation, delivered in a forceful and blindly self-confident way? That felt more like Newt Gingrich, except on steroids. Others will make the comparison I am sure.

Okay, so now we know how Romney did his business deals. When he wants something he can push people (and facts) around pretty well. Where his listeners were wanting to have someone forceful take over and "lead" them, then Mitt would fill the bill. But there is just one problem here; the "facts" and "plans" used in this first Presidential Debate simply didn't add up. We heard a flood of assurances, evasions, claims and rewrites of history. That may convince those who want a President who is "tough" and "forceful", but I'd rather have a President who is intelligent and who levels with the American people. I would NOT like to have to listen to Romney's laundry list of bullshit for four years. Oh, and that Medicare thing? His pledge to not change Medicare for older voters? Any older voter who believes that is a fool. The goal clearly is to gut Medicare and Medicaid, along with as many other social programs as possible.

Food stamps? Food stamps are bad, right? Really? Romney's father's family lived on public assistance for several years after bailing out of Mexico early last century. Was that assistance a bad thing? And if many more families had needed it, wouldn't it have been better to give it to them than have them hungry and in distress? It is bad that people NEED public assistance, but it is not bad that it is there as a safety net to help them. What the President said about job training was to my mind far more intelligent. We live in a world where a lot of jobs are changing rapidly, which only works when there is a widespread system of worker retraining. But that approach would be too fussy for Mitt, after all, he is not really a manager, he is a "takeover artist". Once he has taken over a firm he was an expert in deciding whether the business could be grown, or whether it would be more profitable to run up huge debts and drive it into bankruptcy, while his company kept the borrowed money.

If that's the character that you'd like our President to have, you can stop reading. I think Romney's approach to government would be very similar to "Dick" Cheney's, which makes sense given each of their business backgrounds. Cheney ran a major defense contractor and oil equipment supply company. Guess which industries he lent support to as Vice President? Those two pointless wars? Check. Unchecked and poorly regulated oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico? Check. Huge tax breaks for the wealthy and businesses? Check. Shoddy regulation of banks? Check and check.

And the impact on our economy and the world economy? Devastating.

Personally, I doubt that the effect of electing Romney as our President would be much better. We're still cleaning up from the last Republican administration, so I'm not inclined to let that same group of morons into power again.

Now, what about Romney's unexpectedly fired-up "performance" in this debate? Will that sway a lot of "undecided" voters? Maybe, we'll just have to see. I see Paul Ryan as a youthful clone of Romney, wedded to the same anti-regulation, anti-tax, anti-government philosophies. For the record, I don't see the rich as "job creators". I see them as "money grubbers". Romney's investments in a host of Cayman Island trusts does not convince me that he is a great fan of "progressive taxation". I say that because I paid a higher tax rate than Romney did last year. Given our wildly different economic circumstances, one might even go so far as to say that Romney believes in "regressive taxation", where the poor pay a significantly higher percentage of their income in taxes. Those "loopholes" that Romney talks about, but does not reveal the nature of? Would you expect a Vulture Capitalist to (a) protect and massage his peers, or (b) screw the other 99% of us over, because he can? That is pretty much what he is already doing, so why should anyone imagine he is likely to change? He LIKES being an economic aristocrat, seeing the world through gilded glasses. He is no friend to the poor, I am afraid, unless they are Mormons. That's okay, as long as he doesn't gut our Country's social welfare net, but Mitt seems to think it should be privatized, then perhaps be outsourced. Trust him, he can't explain yet how it will all work, but you are really, really going to like it.

Honest!

Um, no thanks.

Arthur

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

(Haven't posted in a while, just now recovering from the season's first cold.  I'm going to attempt to post this entry with as little political items as possible.  The Romney campaign is so pathetically boring there's not much to be said anyway.  The first round of debates is scheduled for this Wednesday, and they should be good for a hoot or two, but for the most part this campaign is all but done.  I read somewhere there is over a 95% chance Obama will win reelection.  Turn out the lights, the Republican party is over.  But I digress ...)

• Good news came to us guys this week in the form of a little postcard size piece of papyrus that apparently quotes Jesus (yes, THAT Jesus) as referring to "my wife."  Well now, that puts a whole new spin on "WWJD?" When you factor in the idea that he not only lived with a woman other than his mother, he was probably touching naughty parts and cleaving away with gusto, then he becomes a bit easier to relate to. And I supposed the Pope will now allow priests to marry, which means the pedophiles will have to move back to the Boy Scouts.  I bet the sermons at church last Sunday were fascinating.  Mark Morford reports "Jesus, I'm Married!"
• Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-Batshit) slimed her way into a Chicago synagogue on the eve of Yom Kippur the other night, and just the fact that she was in attendance so irritated some of the congregants they immediately went out and donated to her opposition.  "The holiness of the room and the holiness of the evening was greatly diminished for me, if not completely destroyed," said Gary Sircus, a 25-year member of Anshe Emet Synagogue.  All this in spite of the fact that Bachmann is supposedly a big supporter of Israel.  So what is it about this idiot woman that has them all fired up?  Bachmann is anti-gay rights.  Sounds like this country is finally starting to wake up.
• And on a related note, "California has become the first state to ban a controversial form of psychotherapy aimed at making gay teenagers straight."  What?  One would think we'd be reading about some state being the LAST state to ban this insanity.  Okay, okay, at least it's a start.
• Two items in the newspaper this morning have alarmed me about the state of our existence.  First, they're recalling peanut butter.  Peanut butter!  For crissakes, I can understand worrying about washing your vegetables before eating and not leaving potato salad out in the sun too long and refrigerating leftovers, but peanut butter?  Peanut butter is the staple of the earth.  If I was trapped on a desert island with only one thing to eat it would be peanut better.  Come on. Sorry, some things just piss me off.  Oh, and the other thing?  Some farmer in Bandon, Oregon was eaten by his hogs.  Coos County District Attorney Paul Frasier reported that the 69-year-old farmer's remains were found last Wednesday in a hog enclosure at his farm.  The remains consisted of his dentures, and several body parts.  The article didn't report what parts those were.  And what are you having for dinner tonight?
• And finally, allow me to pass on to you this fascinating article by Robert Jensen entitled From Start to Finish: Why We Won and How We Are Losing.  It's rather long, but if you've got the time ... Click Here