Saturday, December 27, 2008

Those Overpaid Auto Workers. Curse Them!


The bold claims that union auto workers at GM, Ford and Chrysler are being paid in excess of $70 can only be made if one adds in all of the legacy medical care and pension pledges made to retirees, and then divides that aggregate number (current wages and benefits + medical and pension payments due to retirees) and then divides it by the number of current employees. That number is smaller than the historic workforce due to a lot of "off-shoring" of manufacturing to Mexico and the closure of US plants. The net effect is that if one divides the smaller number of current employees into the pool of legacy costs, and then one fudges a bit, yes you can come up with a Big Scary Number. A lot of the impetus behind that drive to hammer that kind of bogus statistic into the public's head appears to be (a) Republicans hate unions (b) they like the idea of all three auto companies going bankrupt, so they can renege on their pledges to retirees.

The "fact check" makes a key point: the foreign auto manufacturers have, without exception, chosen to build their plants in the South where they were able to avoid unions and, importantly, receive massive tax breaks. In addition, none of those manufacturing plants has been there long enough to have too many retirees. Yet. So to compare their hourly average (about $26.50 an hour) to the big three (about $29.50 an hour) is not all that dramatic a differential. It is a bit more than a 10% differential. Since labor is less than 10% of the cost of making a car, that would mean that in terms of current wages the difference in cost basis would only be 10% of 10% = 1%. How one factors in the legacy costs is difficult to agree on. While the foreign firms have built up manufacturing structures in the US, to have a high domestic content, Detroit has built up its manufacturing in Mexico and Canada... to cut their costs. Sorting out which savings are offset by legacy costs is a complicated one, but as many have suggested, if domestic manufacturers were building more interesting cars the odds are good that they would be doing better. In the meantime domestic manufacturers are offering unprecedented discounts. All of the "Hummers" are priced to move, as perhaps the brand name most reflective of our recent "age of exuberance".

The latest talking point is that the New Deal was actually a crock, that it was a vast p.r. stunt that did not bring our country out of the depression, but which actually got in the way of the "wisdom of the marketplace" which would have made everything better again, if those darned regulators had just let them do so. I hope we are now at a point where we can recognize that an entirely unregulated financial market often morphs into a feeding frenzy for those with less than pure moral codes.

Arthur

Weekend Update - December 27th




  • As we slip expectantly out of this year and into the next, we prepare our lists. Here's the first one: The 10 Greediest People of 2008.

  • Uncle Bob once told me that he thought John Stossel was a blooming idiot. Now p.m. carpenter writes "The precise moment at which ABC News' John Stossel lost his mind will, I'm sure, forever remain a medical mystery. But that this "news correspondent" of libertarian hysterics has indeed lost his mind is a sadly and increasingly pronounced fact of (his) life."

  • At the risk of making this Weekend Update all about "blooming idiots," let's take a look at another one. Bill Kristol. Is the year the NYT fires his sorry ass?

  • A candidate for the Republican National Committee chairmanship said Friday the CD he sent committee members for Christmas -- which included a song titled "Barack the Magic Negro" -- was clearly intended as a joke. Well, I guess we can take a joke, right? Right?

  • Bob Herbert has a New Year's Resolution, and fantastic advice for this entire country of ours: Stop Being Stupid.

  • Ohmygawd this is fantastic for us history buffs: Henry Kissinger's National Security Archive of telephone conversations. For example "we can bomb the bejesus out of them all over North Vietnam." Henry the K is indeed a war criminal, just like...oh you know.

  • Remember what we said about preparing those lists? Here's another one: The Top 10 Myths About Iraq.

  • The annual USA/Gallup poll asking just over 1000 people whom they admire the most offers results both predictable and amazing. President-Elect Barack Obama was the runaway favorite, with 32% of respondents saying they admire him more than anyone else. What's astounding is that George Bush finished second. The best thing about this report is the picture of a little girl giving Bush the finger.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Dog Whistling Or What?


Okay, so here is what President-Elect Barack Obama chose to discuss on the day before Christmas. A lot of what he said was laudable and much- needed. And then he strayed off into talking about George Washington's epic Christmas Day attack on the British, after a hazardous night crossing of the ice-choked Delaware River. Obama refers to it as a "surprise attack" that won a key strategic victory at a time of low ebb among the Continental Army. Obama speaks of it as "the first American Christmas". Hmmm. So help me understand here, are we meant to honor our Founding Fathers by staging a traditional "surprise attack" every Christmas? So what was he trying to tell us? Were these code words, a secret "dog whistle" to war hawks that the big one is about to be dropped, in honor of George Washington. Did he intend for us to not be shocked if we bombed the crap out of Iran the following day? Watch this and see what you think. Have I become a paranoid?

And then I realized something that gave me a bit of comfort. If Bush used a line like this, any intelligent listener would KNOW that we were going to blow someone up in about 14 hours, maybe less. But nothing personal, they and their nation just made the mistake of being in our way. And then I realized something important; this is not Bush, this is not Cheney, this is not Rumsfeld or Wolfowitz. This is something new. This is probably just a somewhat awkward metaphor, but nobody dies because of awkward metaphors. I still think that part of his message was a bit odd, but what I realize is that we are about to have a President who can think out loud and talk about all manner of things, without ever feeling the need to kill a bunch of people just to make sure people are paying attention. People all over the world ARE paying attention to our new President, and for the most part they seem hopeful about his prospects.

This has been a tough series of years. We have tried being a Clint Eastwood Nation, asking the rest of the world if they felt lucky that day, that month, that year. It didn't work out well for them, nor for us. We tried being the Nation of No Regulations. That was not an outstanding success, either. It was as though there was an enormous pent-up lust for trying out stupid right-wing theories. None of them was worth a damn. You beg to differ? Name one that did a damn bit of good for the American population. Just one.

Sorry, time's up.In more ways than one.

Best wishes to all for the upcoming year. There will be some ups and downs, but I like our chances to take the current bumper crop of lemons and turn them into lemonade. At our best, that is what we do. Working in harmony, pulling in the same direction (up out of the gutter in this instance) I think we will do just fine and we will eventually look back on this era as one to treasure the memory of. A period when we were tested in a multitude of ways, and sorted it all out. That's my prediction, and I am sticking to it.

Arthur

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Some Christmas Presents

Hope you're all doing well today, laying back and enjoying the stuff you got from under the tree. Here's a few more little things that you might enjoy.
  • Hey, why should that Iraqi fellow have all the fun? Now you can throw a shoe at ol' George yourself. Give it a try here.

  • Office Max online offers us all a way to become immortal this holiday season. "Elf Yourself." East Coast Brother Alex sends us his version, and you too can get in on the action. By the way, that's his new baby, Maisie, in the video. She's magnificent.

  • Our friend Jimbo sent us this one. "A Biker's Christmas."

  • What's Christmas without something REALLY offensive? I warn you, this one's not for the faint of heart.

  • And what the hey, Dicky Cheney actually admits his crimes against humanity. This will really help in court. Thanks Dicky.

  • All the way from France, the somehow disturbing "Men In Coats."

  • And in Los Angeles, Santa Claus goes on a shooting rampage and kills nine people. Merry Christmas, Mr. Heston, wherever you are.....

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Weekend Update - December 20th



  • Thousands of Iraqis took to the streets Monday to demand the release of a reporter who threw his shoes at President George W. Bush, as Arabs across many parts of the Middle East hailed the journalist as a hero and praised his insult as a proper send-off to the unpopular U.S. president. His shoes? Mark Morford thinks we can do better.

  • Oh and, ohmygawd, Morford's got 11 things you can buy for christmas that'll make your life a bit weirder. This one is really cool.

  • Just can't get enough of Sarah Palin news. Here's a really interesting article about the mother of Levi Johnston, the father of Sarah's grandchild.

  • Can You Believe This Crap Department: Dick Cheney's lawyers are asserting that the vice president alone has the authority to determine which records, if any, from his tenure will be handed over to the National Archives when he leaves office in January.

  • Barak Obama has chosen Rick Warren to give the invocation at the inauguration. Aside from Warren being an "open homophobe who aggressively works to wound gay people in this country (as well as pretty much anybody else who doesn’t believe with his own particular and peculiar recently-invented version of Christian theology)," we really don't care. Much. Thom Hartman comments.

  • Al Franken is ahead. Go Al!

  • In September 2005, roughly a week after Hurricane Katrina ripped into the Gulf Coast, a group of New Orleans police officers discovered the burned shell of a car sitting on an earthen levee overlooking the bloated Mississippi River. Inside the scorched sedan, scattered across the back seat, lay black ashes and bones. Human bones. A charred skull, shards of rib, an arm bone, clumps of roasted flesh. What's going on here?

  • Bernard Madoff. Brilliant investor? Crook? Paul Krugman asks "How different, really, is Mr. Madoff’s tale from the story of the investment industry as a whole?"

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Chicago Report


Well, the news from Chicago is that there is no news. Oh yeah, that Governor guy with the funny pompadour haircut and obsession with Elvis got arrested and is either going to be removed from office or impeached by the State Senate, but you know, there's no real BIG news, just same old, same old. Blagojevich ran for office as a "reformer" and the people of Chicago are getting a good laugh about that now, saying they can't believe they voted for such a jerk. And that's it. Old news, he is toast, nothing to see here folks, move along and let the walking dead man go by. See, it turns out that "Blago" is just not all that nice a guy, so nobody feels very betrayed or upset. It is more along the lines of, "Oh, so that's what kind of a jerk he is, I wasn't ever sure."

And that recession thing? Hard to see many signs of it here. Massive building projects going on all around downtown, the place is being taken apart and put back together, folks here seem to be taking a long view of things, figuring things will eventually pick up and then they'll cash in, or out, as seems appropriate. I attended a black-tie event and dinner here, had a great time and had trouble seeing signs of economic distress or angst. Am I missing something? I went to a Bavarian-theme Christmas Fair and it was like being in a sardine can stuffed with a double-count of sardines. I like Chicago. Oddly, it reminds me of the spontaneity of Australia, where people often just start talking to you as if they know you, since they assume that you soon will know them. Very down to earth. What can I say? The economy seems fine, the mental health of the citizenry seems stable and they could give a good goddamn about who the Governor was trying to sell what to. Are these signs of an outbreak of common sense? I am encouraged to think so. Kind of like Cholera, but it's good for you.

Arthur

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Weekend Update - December 13th



  • A good day for reflection Saturday. Eight years ago today Al Gore conceded the presidency to George Bush. Author Bob Sommer writes about the beginning of the national nightmare. (Scroll down the page.)

  • No more clearin' brush for Bubba Dubya. You see, George never was a cowboy, Molly Ivins told us that from the beginning. He's even afraid of horses. So he and Laura bought a 2 million dollar mansion in the heart of a tony Dallas neighborhood, and just like that, the movie's over. Also, check out the hilarious Will Ferrell skit.

  • The Lunatic That Is Bill O'Reilly still rants away about the ficticious "war on Christmas." after all, once we secularists get religion out of government, it's only just a moment before we pass secular progressive programs, like legalization of narcotics, euthanasia, abortion at will, gay marriage, lions, tigers, and bears. Oh my. And you know what? There's something racist about this whole thing.

  • Bernard Madoff, former chairman of the Nasdaq, and current chairman of a Wall Street investment securities firm, was arrested and charged with running a "Ponzi Scheme,' something that adds up to $50 billion in losses. And we bailed these people out!?

  • Yesterday, CNN's Rick Sanchez tried desperately to get the phrase "Blagogate" to stick -- the latest in a long and overwhelmingly annoying post-Watergate pattern of ham-handed efforts to hype a scandal by appending the suffix "-gate" to the end of a word. The MSM: Picking Up Where They Left Off 8 Years Ago.

  • Al Franken is just plain not giving up 'till it's over. Good for you Al, go get 'em.

  • After giving BILLIONS to Wall Street hucksters and criminal investment bankers -- billions with no strings attached and, as we have since learned, no oversight whatsoever -- the Senate agrees to bail out the American Auto Industry IF the factory workers take a $20 an hour cut in pay. Michael Moore explains.

  • To America's ruling class: We told you so we told you so. ahem.

  • When the indictments are handed out for War Crimes, Donald Rumsfeld's should be on the top of the pile. We can't wait for the "perp walk."

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

To Get Serious For A Moment


I have been distracted from dishing the dirt by a spate of work and an impending business trip. It will be interesting to be in Chicago for a few days while the Governor is publicly melting down. The news will make much of his foul-mouthed venality, but though I do not wish to interfere with anyone's enjoyment of his well-deserved discomfort, I have a quick thought that may take some of the fun out of it. It is dead easy to stand on an Olympian height and look down on a dolt like the populist Governor of Illinois, who has been revealed as a classic bag-man, rather in the tradition of the Tammany Hall era in New York City. It is roaring good fun to bring a small-time chisler to justice. But I have a caution for the smug observers of this side- show. The big fish are getting away with it, while the stooge is being chased by a pack of dogs.

There seems to be pretty good evidence, at least according to the GAO, that something on the order of nine BILLION dollars just sort of went missing in Iraq. Not one, not two, but nine billion. No one in the current administration seems remotely outraged by that event. Why would that be? If you had to place a bet, what do you think the odds are that the perps of this bold theft might just be (a) Republican loyalists, and (b) Friends of George and Dick. For some odd reason, when Republicans chase Congressional Pages or market defense contracts to the highest bribers, no one seems inclined to even look. When a Democrat tries such shenanigans, doing things like leaving $90,000 in his freezer, everyone is shocked, shocked! What effrontery that a Democrat would attempt to behave like a Republican! the nerve! But all the time, never forget that the really big crooks are salting away tens and hundreds of times as much hot money, and doing such a smarter job of it that the odds of them being caught is far less. Governor Rod Blagojevich comes across as one of the dumbest criminal minds on the block, which proves the old rule; dumb crooks get sent up, smart crooks get the Congressional Medal of Freedom. The "Freedom" in the award is presumably "freedom from want".

Yes it will be fun to be in Chicago while everyone is out in the streets kicking a mental midget, but let's keep perspective here. The really big crooks are going to be laughing all the way to their Swiss bank accounts. No one is going to call them out, no one is going to take them on, the odds of something going wrong for them are very, very small indeed.

Arthur

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Weekend Update - December 6




  • We've been gleefully waiting for Michael Moore to weigh in on this big-three automaker bailout scheme, and here it is. But is his tirade too much? Michael Moore typical-over-the-top too much? Here's another thought from Detroit writer Toby Barlow.
  • Mark Morford's been sick this week, so no words of wisdom from him. But here's a good one from last month I didn't pass on, and it's about Detroit.
  • So, on LBJ's new tapes just released, he's overheard yelling "This is treason!" Yeah, he was talking about Dick Nixon. Okay, this shows how desperate we are for news, I admit.
  • People say Carolyn Kennedy is interested in the Family senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton? What? Sources say the family is urging her to take it, but wait a sec. Who is she? Yeah, yeah, I know all that, but really, who is she?
  • Georgia's Shame: Electing Saxby Chambliss. (Couldn't have said this better...)
  • When it comes to protecting George W. Bush and his administration, Attorney General Michael Mukasey is stretching legal arguments as far as his predecessor Alberto Gonzales ever did – now even invoking the “Nixon Defense” for justifying presidential wrongdoing.
  • Amsterdam unveiled plans on Saturday to close brothels, sex shops and marijuana cafes in its ancient city center. There were brothels, sex shops and marijuana cafes in Amsterdam? And we went to Wally World last year? Shit.
  • Oprah Winfrey has decided not to seek a cabinet post in the Obama administration. I was going to write something else to accompany this announcement, but my brain just went into a kind of a Max Headroom moment. Seeking medication.
  • Will somebody PLEASE tell me if Barak Obama is an actual U.S. citizen? Really, this is important!
  • So what'dya think, Liberals? Now that his wife has been appointed Secretary of State, should William Jefferson Clinton stop talking for money? Or does the former 2-term President of the United States have a right to talk to anyone he wants to? Drop us a line here and let us know. eprush1@aol.com .
  • And here's the winner of the Bad Hat Statement of the Week Award, professor of political science and communication, Scott Althaus, who said "I think that it raises the question of whether or not we can trust the government to maintain public records of things that were said or done that later prove embarrassing." Apparently Official White House documents have been found to have been altered. Gosh, what a surprise. And we've got a feeling this is just the beginning.
  • Keeping Our Fingers Crossed Dept.: How's our man Al Franken doing in Minnesota as of Friday? The latest: The discovery of uncounted and missing ballots has complicated the final days of the recount in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate election, the closest Senate race this year.
  • We greatly admire veteran reporter Helen Thomas. She says Hillary Clinton could be a peacemaker. We agree.