Weekend Update - September 28th

• Okay, so let's start this week's Update with "Sarah Palin's Secret Lover Revealed!" We can only go up from here.


• Mark Morford comments on the good news and the bad news of California's latest insane propositions.


• The NYT reports that John McCain has many ties to gambling. McCain a gambler?


• Soon after Sarah Palin was elected mayor of the foothill town of Wasilla, Alaska, she startled a local music teacher by insisting in casual conversation that men and dinosaurs coexisted on an Earth created 6,000 years ago -- about 65 million years after scientists say most dinosaurs became extinct -- the teacher said. Holy crap, indeed.


• Did Sarah Palin's nonsensical blathering to Katie Couric successfully lower the bar for her debate that all she needs to do is speak coherently to win?


• "This is the attention-deficit-disorder campaign," said a bewildered senior Republican operative. "They've had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week."


• Sources say Alberto Gonzales now claims that President Bush personally directed him to John Ashcroft's hospital room in the infamous wiretap renewal incident—and that in another instance the President asked him to fabricate fictitious notes. That's our Dubya. Which brings us naturally to this question: Should George Bush be prosecuted for murder?

This One Is For Uncle Bob

(Uncle Bob is not doing well. He's suffered perhaps another stroke and is having some difficulty. JP)

Those who came back from World War II did not make much of a fuss about it all. Most of them were just glad to have survived. The war was an erratic adventure, in which many served out the war in menial and boring work, while others, almost at random, got to be the ones who were on the firing lines. Uncle Bob got to be one of those, as well as one of the ones who spent a long, long time in an unhappy prison situation. On balance, Bob was one of the luckier ones among those who were unlucky enough to (a) be in a combat situation (b) get captured, and (c) survive both of those experiences that many did not.

A fair number of those who came back from World War II tended to lean Republican, perhaps in part responding to Ike becoming President. Hard to say. Bob was one of the other kind of veteran, who came back from the war with all his social conscience intact and all his wits about him. All one needs to do is read his writing to catch on to that. Relatively few of us alive got to see what Bob saw and experienced before the war. The other day someone around here said that before the war his entire family had to work to support them, but after the war he was able to support his family on the proceeds of just his one job. I am not sure how such a profound change came about, but wiser heads than I can probably explain why our economy was stimulated by the war, instead of being run into the ground as is currently happening with our wonderful Desert Adventure, aka "The Bungle in Baghdad". For those who do not know the history of the British occupation of Iraq in the 1920s, it is worth noting that "victory" was proclaimed a number of times, only to be followed by periods of "non-victory", which finally culminated in the British leaving, with no good result other than some well-filled cemeteries. Oh, and the British garrisoned Iraq with 150,000 troops also, but at that time the population of Iraq was, are you ready for this? 3.5 million. Now? 23 million. Add 20 million Iraqis, give them some modern weaponry and communications gear, and put in the same number of troops. Smart? or foolhardy? You decide.

The big problem? There are relatively few veterans in the Bush administration. Instead it is a cabal of chicken-hawks. Cheerleaders waving bloody pom-poms. And the one vet that lead us into the Iraq war? Rumsfeld. Remember which service he served in? The Navy, as a Naval Aviator. Wikipedia tells us of his experience at: (Click Here)

So Rumsfeld was a fighter pilot, who never fought. Great. A frustrated Top Gun, who missed Korea and missed Vietnam. But he sure had lots of theories about how air power could win wars really fast and really cheaply. Bomb that crap out of everything and everyone and cow them into submission with your fireworks. Ground troops? Managing an occupation? Hey, those aren't really very interesting things to discuss, not for a manly guy like Donny Rumsfeld. So there we are, in a country that cordially dislikes us and wants us to go home, supporting a government that has thinly veiled contempt for our President, who they suspect of being a complete weenie. And while the Iraqi government is hoarding its reserves, we are being bled at the rate of $12 Billion a month, month in and month our. Before the election Keith Olbermann is going to be able to say that it is exactly 2,000 days since President Bush announced "Mission Accomplished" on an aircraft carrier parked ten miles off San Diego for that particular photo-op. Two thousand days of pointless violence and chaos. The deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians. What a legacy.

And now another Naval Aviator wants to become President. Thanks, been there, done that, didn't like how that went. It seems that pilots have some idea that the way to handle conflict is to drop bombs on it. Kind of like throwing gas on a fire. The Brits found that out in the 1920s. They used to carpet bomb villages and drop mustard gas on them. All a part of bring civilization to those tribal desert heathens. We had a chance to read up on the history of that earlier war, but did we do so? Nope. Books have big words and you have to concentrate to read them.

Now there is this Omigod the Sky is Falling bailout thing. It seems to be a huge surprise to the Secretary of the Treasury. I could have told him it was likely to happen two years ago, but I doubt that he would have listened. Now, in less than a week, Secretary Paulson wants us all to panic and give him absolute authority to spend a ton of our money however he wishes. He'll tell us about it later, but right now he is too, too busy to talk with us because he is so caught off guard by the discovery that the economy is built on a mountain of fraud and phony paper. Oooopsie, those were those free market folks who, if their creative abilities were unleashed, could build the United States back into a World Colossus. Kind of like the Military Colossus that Rumsfeld wanted to turn us into.

Don't buy the story. Yes, there are some problems, but we don't need to get all "shock and awe" again. We need to slow down, think things through and do some of the hard work of sorting out the sheep from the goats. It'll work out. But your three bedroom house isn't worth $600,000 any more. And that's really okay. Warren Buffet, the smartest Billionaire in the country, is supporting Barack Obama and is on his advisory team. That's all you need to know about who to vote for. Hey, or you can trust John "Sleeps with Lobbyists" McCain, aka "The Maverick" who has turned into a walking talking cartoon this week. If you want to, all that I can say is, "Good luck". It is going to be hard to get through life being as stupid as that, but we'll try to get you some special support. I mean, that's what caring societies do, right? We help those who are mentally challenged.


Arthur

Cell Phone Polling

This may seem like a fairly arcane subject, but in the 2008 election it is not.

The percentage of households which only have cell phones has risen from 6% in 2004 to 25% now, in time to scramble the accuracy of polling done for this election. Importantly, those households tend to be younger people, many in the 18 to 34 year old range. I heard repeatedly that pollsters only call households with land line phones, at random. The reason seems to be that there are regulations prohibiting automated calls to cell phones and pollsters use automated calling equipment. The net result? Polls tend to under- report younger voters. By how much? In the Wisconsin Primary Obama was polling 3 points over Clinton. The actual vote? Obama by 17 percent. 14 percent seems to have been hidden from pollsters by those voters only having cell phones... or else Obama had a really strong finish? Some of that 14 points could be put down to a good final day or two, but I am inclined to think that the cell phone effect also played a big part.

When you read this (click here), scroll down and look at the two graphs, one showing increased percentage of households with only cell phones, the other showing the percentage of younger households. In some polls (the Gallup Daily Tracking poll is the most notorious) the weight given to younger voters is 10%. But here, we see that age group looking more like 30%. Other polls weight that age group as 20% of their adjusted sample. That is, they call a bunch of people, ask them their age, ask them who they are voting for, then when they gather the 1200 or 1500 responses they group them by age range ("weighting") and pull out 20% of that age group and count them toward their final tally. One argument is that younger voters don't really vote. If Joe Biden were the candidate, that might be true, but he is not.

The other interesting thing about cell phone only households is that they tend to be minority households. If those individuals get out and vote this year, that would have a major impact on the outcome.

If these effects even gave as little as a 2 or 3 percent shift in the actual voting pattern, that could well determine the election. Notice that this phenomena is a new and undocumented effect, that will undoubtedly be a big news item. And note that the outcome of the Wisconsin Primary suggests it could make the difference, all else being equal.

And here is your daily dose of Sarah Palin, whose towering popularity in her home state seems to be taking a bit of a hit. The Anchorage Daily News (the paper of record in AK) is not happy. In fact they are coming perilously close to saying that Palin has become what she has railed against, a typical politician. It is probably too much to hope to be able to flip Alaska into the Obama column, but it will be fun to watch the Obama campaign try.

Arthur

Weekend Update - September 20th

• Every white woman Mark Morford knows is positively horrified. And with good reason, we might add.


• Poor John McCain. Can't seem to keep that pesky stuff concerning the National Guard and the U.S. Army straight. Now, which is which?


• "John McCain, who has risen to political prominence on his image as a Vietnam POW war hero, has, inexplicably, worked very hard to hide from the public stunning information about American prisoners in Vietnam who, unlike him, didn't return home." Read "McCain and the POW Cover-up," from The Nation.


• Here's a Looking Back feature on thankfully deceased Lee Atwater, and how today's ugly campaigning is all part of his legacy.


• Jonathan Alter of Newsweek writes "McCain and the Zig-Zag Express."


• The pastor whose prayer Sarah Palin says helped her to become governor of Alaska founded his ministry with a witchhunt against a Kenyan woman who he accused of causing car accidents through demonic spells. Praise Jesus.


• A senior Republican on the Senate banking committee, said in a television interview that cost to the government of purchasing bad debt could run to $1 trillion. Seems to me that Reaganomics is finally in the toilet. Our country is in deep trouble.
• It's Linda Perry's birthday. Ohmygawd I've got to get some flowers!

A Concise Explanation of How This All Happened

This article (click here) does an excellent job of framing two of the worst economic problems of the last eight years, except of course the Billions that have been wasted in "George's Excellent Adventure in the Desert", the Iraq War that the Bush administration promised Congress would "pretty much pay for itself". What is fascinating is to note the role played by Senator Phil Gramm, John McCain's top economic advisor, widely assumed as McCain's choice as Treasury Secretary, if McCain is elected. Given Gramm's key role in putting a huge dent in our economy recently, one has to wonder. Is McCain nuts, or just really, really stupid? In the last huge banking meltdown, where was McCain then? Lobbying a regulatory body, asking them to lay off his good friend Charles Keating. That small delay lead to the bailout of Keating's bank costing the US Treasury $3 Billion, the costliest bank rescue until that time.

John McCain, and his economic advisor, would appear to have a long record of accomplishment in regard to the economy. A really bad one.

Oh, and that "Enron Loophole" that Gramm championed? That has allowed unregulated speculation in oil futures that contributed to the rise in the cost of oil recently. Thanks a lot, Phil! I hope we can return the favor some day.

Arthur

There's Something About Sarah

This article (click here) does a quite good job of explaining what it is about Sarah Palin that has many people so hot under the collar.

I think the big thing is that she has done squat to address any national issues that I am aware of, other than to play to Evangelicals on rightwing radio. Call me old fashioned, I have trouble seeing that as sufficient. I love her original claim to have been to "Iraq, Kuwait, Ireland and Germany". It turns out that "Ireland" was a refueling stop and Iraq was a "stand at the border and gaze at it" which one presumes must have been highly educational. And her talk of one being able to SEE into Russia from some parts of Alaska? Hey, I transited Moscow one time during the Cold War and went into the terminal and waited for two hours and then got back on the plane. Lots of guys in fur hats were carrying machine guns with rotary magazines, like the old Thompson machine guns in the movies. And they looked very, very ready to use them. When we left Moscow our Air India flight had taken on a half plane load of Russian vacationers, heading for India on holiday. A bunch of them stayed in my favorite hotel in New Delhi and drank constantly while displaying their disturbingly white and overfed bodies at the poolside.

Based on that week-long experience, don't you think that I qualify as an expert on Russia, Russian military affairs and Russian society? Based on the Palin-Principle, clearly that would be so.

So yes, John McCain has really stirred things up, got his crowds of supporters all stirred up, got the talking heads... well, talking, and he has captured a couple of news cycles and some polls. Now what? Aside from McCain enjoying her smart-mouthed trash-talk and her odd quasi-Canadian accent, what now? Can anyone imagine the havoc of permitting her to actually govern? Alaska seems embroiled in a political fight already. Are we looking for one, or are we looking for something more productive than a fight for fight's sake. Ever wonder why John McCain got into so many plane crashes? Just unlucky? No, I always suspected it was because he has something like ADD. He just doesn't pay too much attention to things and he does things impulsively. I am no flier, but I did ride motorcycles some, and on a bike one learned to really just pay attention at all times. It's not fun, but falling over is a lot less fun. It is nothing short of a miracle that John McCain is still alive. His aircraft did not do so well. Do we want John "the impulsive" McCain to become the pilot of our nation?

To put it bluntly, would our nation survive John McCain's next plane crash?

Arthur

Weekend Update - September 13th

• Who's the true elitist? And just what the heck is an elitist? Here's 18 ways to tell if you're one, from Mark Morford.


• Al Jazeera speaks to Howard Zinn, the author, American historian, social critic and activist, about how the Iraq war damaged attitudes towards the US and why the US "empire" is close to collapse.


• Robert Parry writes, "Despite all the chatter about how 'historic' Campaign 2008 has been, it is the McCain-Palin ticket that it is truly testing the limits, not of race or gender politics, but whether the United States is ready to enter into a new dimension of political lying."


• The New York Times editorial board wonders just what John McCain is thinking.


• Here's an interesting little story about Governor Palin acting like a silly high schooler on a radio talk show.


• And will someone please tell this woman that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11? Good grief.


• And forgive me if it looks like I'm piling on, but I couldn't pass this one up: "Top Ten Dumbest Sarah Palin Quotes."


• Has the Bush administration maxed out the military? "Weakened Warriors."

It's Saturday Night in Wasilla, Alaska

We may not believe The National Enquirer, but 15 million copies a month are sold and mailed (yes, one can subscribe) and the faithful readers just LOVE the stories in TNE.

Many of the stories are fanciful, but a precious few, like the John Edwards affair story, turn out to be very, very real. The gimmick the Enquirer has that no mainstream paper has is that they are permitted to pay cash for stories, once they are able to verify them to be accurate. So their business model is essentially to make stuff up, and occasionally have real facts that they paid generously for. How generously? The real numbers are not known, but some claim that up to half a million dollars has changed hands for a really juicy story. The kind that ends careers.

There is probably not a lot to do if you are young and restless in Wasilla, Alaska. Play hockey, shoot at things, drive on the relatively few roads, hike a bit, play video games. And do drugs. By coincidence Wasilla has been identified as the "Meth Capital of Alaska" based on statistics of the number of meth labs busted there. What that speaks to is a growing social problem in a certain demographic group, but it also speaks to what kind of community it is.

This is the sort of story that will reach a certain segment of the population. Interestingly, it is an almost perfect overlap of the households that Sarah Palin hoped to appeal to. On the one hand they may be sympathetic towards the problems of the Palin family, but they may also be the most critical, asking what exactly the Palins did to try to reign in their kids, asking whether running for Governor and serving as Governor took their attention away from their children at ages when parental presence and involvement was critical. We all know that children have an astounding ability to get into trouble even with parental oversight, but others may not be so charitable.

It is also fair to ask, given strains within the Palin family, whether it was wise to put their family into the glare of the national press? The only enduring message I can take away from this entire debacle is that a woman can screw things up just as well as a man can, and Sarah Palin is living proof of that. I happened to be in SE Asia when Indira Gandhi declared Martial Law in India. I was just about to go there, but stayed put until it was over. Gandhi had her army and police do nasty things to people. It did not leave me with an impression of women as the weaker or gentler sex. It left me feeling that when women go bad, they go very, very bad. A good friend of mine, a former diver for the Indian Navy, got caught up in the dragnet of India's Martial Law. He was hung over the edge of a five story building and asked to assist the police by becoming an unpaid informer, or, if he chose, he could fall to his death. True story. When I saw him he was a shell of himself. A happy, life of the party man was turned into a traumatized wreck. Sarah Palin reminds me of Indira Gandhi. No exaggeration, I sense that she is bad news. Very bad news. Fortunately, an increasing number of Americans feel the same. Oh, the press and Fox News had fun with a fresh face, but even they are starting to catch on to her creepy side and realize that the story is getting really old, really fast.

Oh, and is it "sexist" to say that a lady seems to be a thug? Nope, if she were a guy and acted as she does, I promise you I would say just the same. I am, if nothing else, an equal opportunity caller of bullshit. John McCain is a desperate and addled jerk to pull her out of the hat, like a pink rabbit. Nice trick, but no cigar, John.

Arthur

Weekend Update - September 6th

• First off, let's make this absolutely clear. Republican honchos have NOT been discussing how to bump the embarrassing Sarah Palin off the ticket. Got it?


• Right-wing politics got you down? Accidently tuned into the RNC'08 and couldn't turn away until you gagged? Mark Morford thinks you look angry.


• If anything can sum up the charm of Sarah Palin, the moose-hunting Governor of Alaska and now the Republican Party’s vice-presidential nominee, it is perhaps the nickname she gave her husband, Todd: “First Dude”. So just how perfect is he?


• Do NOT watch this. It's disrespectful and silly. Don't watch this one either. Or this one.


• We probably should discuss briefly Sarah Pralin's religious upbringing, hell it's fair game for the anti-Obama people. Okaaaay, in addition to Third Wave and New Apostolic Reformation, it is also referred to by the names of some of its more extreme theologies, such as Joel's Army and Manifest Sons of Destiny. Its roots are in a revival of the manifestations and beliefs of the New Order of Latter Day Rain. What? And among other things her church believes you can "pray away the gay." Oh brother.


• Fake troops, fake funerals, all for the glory of sanitized war. John McCain just keeps Wagging That Dog.

What Being a Partner With the Bush Administration Is Like

Okay, so Bush was able to listen in to "everything he says" with the he being our close ally Nouri al Maliki. Does anyone want to make a bet as to whether Bush is also tapping and bugging John McCain and Barack Obama? I mean, why not? the Bush administration seems to love to break laws and violate civil rights and every crime is justified as being a National Security issues, we can't discuss it and of course it is legal, as long as the President okays it.

There is going to be a lot of truth and reconciliation needed after the Bush administration leaves. Does anyone believe that John McCain would really do that? John McCain who has frozen service records of all POWs (perhaps to shield his own?) and whose Indian Affairs Committee has sealed extensive records related to things Jack Abramoff did. Like bribing lots of Republicans.

John McCain can beat his chest, rend his clothing and pour ashes on his head in contrition over how terrible it was that Republicans came to Washington and were corrupted after they arrived, by that terrible, sinful, naughty place. He can swear, as Bush did, that he will bring "honor back to the White House". But the Republicans set new records for sleaze, while John McCain happily worked side-by-side with the sleaze merchants and recipients, without raising much of a fuss that I can recall. The idea that McCain, now, is really going to do anything other than be the double-talking showboater he has always been, an opportunist, overly impulsive, given to rash promises and bold statements, in short a prankster and an insubstantial windbag. At a time when our country needs a far, far steadier hand at the helm. Too harsh?

The Republican National Committee has threatened to sue The National Inquirer if they proceed to publish their upcoming "Sarah Palin" issue. On your local news stand soon! That is what is left of the once mighty Republican Party. Rolling around in the dust, desperate to stop The National Enquirer from publishing a well-researched article suggesting Palin is a bit like John Edwards, a bit like Dick Cheney and a bit like President Bush. The more questionable bits, as it happens. Hey, nice (impulsive) pick Senator McCain!

Arthur