Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Iran Keeps Simmering


What is going on in Iran currently has been, and seems likely to continue to be, an upending of conventional wisdom as to who the Iranian people are, or are not. One thing we learned from the "Green Revolution" movement in the wake of a laughably fraudulent election is that many Iranians, young and old, are not very happy with the way things are. There is a faction within Iran who are fervent conservative thugs (can we say "thugs" on this website?) and they are no different from the opportunistic thugs in any other nation. They are Iranian Brown Shirts, pure and simple. Bought, paid for, protected and mindlessly loyal to those who support them. Such creatures will always be with us, in those societies that let them thrive and use them to suppress the people.

But bad things keep happening to the badly-corrupted Iranian Revolution; the people are fed up with it and spend their nights on rooftops calling out across the city, giving heart to one another and announcing protests, key figures in recent Iranian history are speaking up and taking strong stands in support of a sweeping change in the Iranian government. Opposing these populist forces are the predictable organs of state control. The odds seem good that the state, as the state usually does, will prevail. But things keep happening, like the death of this outspoken and principled senior figure in Iran's religious establishment. His death reminds Iranians of all that he stood for, all that he said over the years. This is very inconvenient for the current regime, based as much on cronyism as principle, deeply corrupt and no longer popular with the average Iranian, the majority of whom were not alive during the time of the Shah, so cannot be swayed by calls to recall what they never saw, never knew personally. Keep an eye on Iran. It still may change that part of the world in ways that none of could ever predict.

Arthur

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